Model weights and the foundations of multimodel inference.

Improving the Prediction of Winter Precipitation and Temperature over the Continental United States: Role of the ENSO State in Developing Multimodel Combinations

Recent research into seasonal climate prediction has focused on combining multiple atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) to develop multimodel ensembles. A new approach to combining multiple GCMs is proposed by analyzing the skill levels of candidate models contingent on the relevant predictor(s) state. To demonstrate this approach, historical simulations of winter (December–February, D...

Reducing hydrologic model uncertainty in monthly streamflow predictions using multimodel combination

[1] Model errors are inevitable in any prediction exercise. One approach that is currently gaining attention in reducing model errors is by combining multiple models to develop improved predictions. The rationale behind this approach primarily lies on the premise that optimal weights could be derived for each model so that the developed multimodel predictions will result in improved predictions...

Multimodel inference and adaptive management.

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the com...

Model Selection and Multimodel Inference

Effective soil moisture estimate and its uncertainty using multimodel simulation based on Bayesian Model Averaging

Various hydrological models have been developed for estimating root zone soil moisture dynamics. These models, however, incorporated their own parameterization approaches indicating that the output from the different model inherent structures might include uncertainties because we do not know which model structure is correct for describing the real system. More recently, multimodel approaches u...